PARIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- You may remember recently that Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) produced a report Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down – Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources. In the report it rubbished the theory of peak oil before going on to say that “peak oil” will in fact happen.
Peak Oil Passnotes: Peak Oil vs. Cera - The Fight Continues
By Edward Tapamor
22 Dec 2006 at 12:59 PM EST
PARIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- You may remember recently that Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) produced a report Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down – Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources. In the report it rubbished the theory of peak oil before going on to say that “peak oil” will in fact happen.
It did this by saying that there will be no single peak but a series of bumps and bounces they called an “undulating plateau.” This seemed quite odd to many “peak oil” observers as one of the prime theories, or types, of peak oil is in fact an undulating plateau. As opposed to a nice pointy mountain type shaped triangle.
CERA are the analyst group led by Daniel Yergin author of “The Prize” and whose reports go for thousands of dollars. When the report came out we mentioned how odd it was that the ‘peak oil’ crowd were being attacked in this way. Why did such an establishment body need to take so much time attacking a group it sees as so far-out?
Well now it has had a reply. Chris Skrebowski from the Energy Institute in London has written an open letter to CERA wondering about many of the same questions. Skrebowski is in fact a regular ‘peak oil’ chap. He is not given to wild pronouncements and is currently editor of the industry magazine Petroleum Review. This makes what he has to say a lot more interesting.
After some initial jousting Skrebowski notes that CERA’s public denouncement of‘peak oil is not quite as it would seem.
“It is not even clear if CERA believes its own report as I am intrigued to see that CERA is now promoting a new multi-client survey Dawn of a New Age: Global Energy Scenarios for Strategic Decision Making - The Energy Future to 2030. In the promotional blurb we learn in the first paragraph that it is a multi-client study and such gems as “... reflecting the heightened anxiety about the future of energy. The concern is not just over oil, but every aspect of the energy value chain; and the stakes are high for all participants in the global economy - but especially for senior executives and policy makers.”
“Let me see if I’ve got this correct. For a public attack on Peak Oil activists’ concerns you claim there’s not an oil supply problem and we’re all irresponsible alarmists. But for senior executives and policy makers you have ‘undertaken the most comprehensive research project in our history’.”
It is a good point. Energy security, maturing fields and supply questions are openly discussed at many events worldwide. Many senior industry figures believe peak oil will happen at some point, they just do not know when.
There then follows some arguing over reserve estimates, whether all the possible reserves in the world are really possible. But Skrebowski then makes his most interesting point, one that we have pointed out before, that CERA do in fact believe in “peak oil.”
“Now although you regard the Peak Oil community as far too pessimistic I ask you to consider the following. If we take the simplest and most straightforward reserves based approach and use the best figures for proven and probable (2P) reserves from IHS Energy (CERA’s parent company) these show that by end 2005 some 1,077 Gb (billion barrels) had been produced and 1,251 Gb remained, giving total discovered reserves of 2,328 Gb. Now if Peak Oil occurs when 50% of the reserves have been depleted – how long will it be until 1,164 Gb have been produced? Again using IHS Energy figures we are finding a little over 11 Gb/year and consumed 29 Gb in 2005 so our collective net consumption of reserves is 18 Gb/year. On that basis we peak in slightly under 5 years, or in 2012.”
He then goes on to back up our view, that what CERA is doing is providing a blanket of denial for the industry, whilst simultaneously telling the industry itself that the problem is real.
“As you know my personal belief is that an analysis based on new production flows is more accurate. Using all the latest data in my megaprojects (actually all yielding peaks of over 40,000 b/d) I find that Peak Oil occurs in 2011 plus or minus one year.
However, whichever approach is used if the Peak occurs at any of the above dates it is very hard to see how any or all the additional resources you (CERA) identify…can, even potentially, be mobilized in time to move Peak Oil by more than a year or two.
I therefore conclude that far from dispelling concerns about Peak Oil you have effectively confirmed that they are real and imminent.”
Happy Christmas!
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